Holiday Bowl USC vs. Louisville NCAAF Betting Preview & Analysis (12/27/2023)

Holiday Bowl USC vs. Louisville NCAAF Betting Preview & Analysis (12-27-2023)

Although Louisville won’t be heading to a New Year’s Six bowl in their first season under head coach Jeff Brohm, their consolation prize is great. And they will meet one of the top brands in college football. The Cardinals have been selected to play in the DirecTV Holiday Bowl. Specifically, The Ville will face USC on Wednesday, December 27, at Petco Park in San Diego. In sum, this is Louisville’s 12th College Football Betting Bowl appearance over the last 14 seasons, their 21st bowl appearance over the last 26 seasons, and their 26th overall.

Holiday Bowl USC vs. Louisville NCAAF Betting Information

Date and Time:Wednesday, December 27, 2023, 8 p.m. ET.
Location:Petco Park, San Diego, CA.
TV Coverage:FOX
Odds at SBG Sportsbook
TeamSpreadTotalML
Louisville-7½ -11058 -110-300
USC+7½ -11058 -110+240
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Holiday Bowl Format

The Holiday Bowl began in 1978, and the matchup currently features schools from the Pac-12 and ACC. Specifically, Petco Park, home of the San Diego Padres, has been the host of this game since 2022. The payout is $6.5 million in the Holiday Bowl.

Holiday Bowl Recent Results

Following two offshore bookmaker years of COVID cancelations, the Holiday Bowl returned in 2022. Oregon beat North Carolina 28-27, scoring the winning TD on a 6-yard TD pass from Bo Nix to Chase Cota with six seconds remaining in the game. Bucky Irving was the MVP with 149 yards rushing and two TDs for Oregon.

Holiday Bowl Past Winners

In addition to the most victories of any school in the Holiday Bowl, BYU easily has the most appearances. The Cougars appeared in 11 of the game’s first 16 contests. But they haven’t been back since losing to Ohio State in 1993. The Buckeyes are the only team the Cougars faced twice, and BYU dropped both.

Although the Pac-12 is considered the best conference in the western part of the country, the success hasn’t translated to the Holiday Bowl. Since the Pac-10 aligned with the game in 1998, conference teams have gone just 7-15.

Holiday Bowl Matchup

Last game, the Louisville Cardinals lost 16-6 against the Florida State Seminoles as 1.5-point favorites. The game went under the College Football Betting total of 46.5. Louisville has a record of 10-3 straight up, 6-6-1 against the spread, and 6-6-1 over/under the total. Louisville ranks 44th for total offense, 53rd for passing, 46th for rushing, and 45th for scoring. Defensively, they rank 16th overall, 35th against the pass, 14th against the rush, and 21st for points allowed. Also, Louisville ranks 47th for fewest turnovers lost and 40th for takeaways.

Last game, the USC Trojans lost 38-20 against the UCLA Bruins as 5-point home dogs. The game went under a total of 63. USC has a record of 7-5 straight up, 3-9 against the spread, and 9-3 over/under the total. USC ranks 11th for total offense, 5th for passing, 91st for rushing, and 5th for scoring. Defensively, they rank 123rd overall, 118th against the pass, 117th against the rush, and 125th for points allowed. Also, USC ranks 127th for fewest turnovers lost and 110th for takeaways.

Holiday Bowl Prediction

Last year, led by interim head coach Deion Branch, the Cardinals won the Fenway Bowl 24-7 over Cincinnati. Ironically, that was Scott Satterfield’s final year at the helm. Of great concern is that USC QB and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of the matchup. In this situation, Louisville has a better body of work. By contrast, USC is without its key star player.