Preakness favorites have been the way to go in the second race of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Betting on the Preakness begins with the favorite and then you consider Preakness longshots. How good have Preakness favorites been? Let’s take a look.
Preakness have been simply fantastic. Keep in mind that normally in horse racing the favorite wins about a third of the time. Preakness favorites win just over 50% of the time. That is a huge number at the sports book. As you look at Preakness favorites there are some keys to remember. Usually the Kentucky Derby winner is the favorite but even when he is not, the favorite has still done well. Preakness favorites have been so good recently that they have won six of the last eight races. Preakness longshots have just not been the way to go recently at the sports book. In fact, since 1984 only one of the Preakness longshots, Bernadini won at odds of about 13-1. And he would never have won had Barbaro not gotten hurt in that race. No other horse since 1983 has won at double-digit odds. That tells you that Preakness longshots are really bad bets, at least recently.
Preakness favorites have definitely been the way to go at the sports book. Since 1966 there have been 20 Preakness favorites that have hit the winner’s circle. Just last year it was Big Brown winning easily as the 1-5 favorite at the sportsbook. Big Preakness favorites have not done as well as you might expect, even though Big Brown did win last year. Since 1911, there have been a total of 28 horses that went off at odds-on and 18 of those horses were winners. Now, 64% is nothing to sneeze at but when you are talking about odds-on favorites you would expect the percentage to be a little higher.
The biggest favorite ever in Preakness odds was Citation in 1948 and he was an easy winner. Spectacular Bid won in 1979 at similar odds while Count Fleet and Native Dancer were also huge favorites. Big Brown was right with those last two as a 1-5 favorite. He was even favored more than Secretariat was in 1973. Even Affirmed didn’t go off at 1-5. He was 1-2 in 1978. Not all of the big favorites won their races. Some big Preakness favorites have lost. Riva Ridge was upset in 1972 while Fusaichi Pegasus lost in 2000.
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