Preakness Stakes favorites win more than half the time so keep that in mind as you look at this year’s race.Remember that favorites in horse racing win about 33% of the time. Preakness Stakes favorites win 51% of the time. I you are considering Preakness Stakes longshots you will want to keep that in mind.
Preakness Stakes favorites are oftentimes the Kentucky Derby winner, but not always. In 2008 it was Big Brown who was favored at odds of 1-5 and he was an easy winner. In 2007 it was Derby winner Street Sense a very slight favorite over Curlin and he lost a very close race. In 2007 it was Barbaro the Preakness Stakes online betting choice and he lost after getting injured. In 2005 the Derby winner, Giacomo was not favored. That role went to Afleet Alex and he won the race. The Derby winners were favored though in 2002-2004 as War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones were winners as Preakness favorites.
As you handicap Preakness odds do you really want to go against Preakness favorites and take Preakness Stakes longshots? You are bucking a 50%+ trend and those numbers are tough to get past if you like Preakness Stakes longshots at the sports book. Preakness favorites that have had big online betting money wagered on them have done even better than the 50%. Odds-on favorites have won about 64% of the time. 18 of 28 odds-one favorites have hit the wire in first place in Preakness wagering. Many of those horses were huge favorites at the sports book as Big Brown was. Big Brown went off at 1-5 but he was not the biggest of the Preakness favorites ever. That honor goes to Citation in 1948 followed closely by Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Not all Preakness favorites have won. Probably the most memorable failure was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 as he disappointed a lot of people losing at odds of 3-10. Red Bullet was the Preakness Stakes longshots choice at odds of 6-1.
When you are betting this year’s Preakness you have to start with the favorite. That role is likely to go to Rachel Alexandra with Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird pretty much an afterthought. Looking at Rachel Alexandra first and everyone else second seems to be the way to go based on Preakness history.
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